PDO Question?

Question

What is the current PDO state? How does it affect ocean temps.? How does it affect precip? How does it affect the Jet Stream? Is it causing the western drought? What other factors have been contributing to the drougth? How long has the PDO been in a certain state?

Answer 1

The PDO state is negative. This causes temperatures to lower(on average, especially off the west coast). Since they are lower, there is less convection, and there is a possibility it is linked to the drought. The PDO has been in this state since the mid 2000s, and is likely to change by the early 2030s. In terms of the jet stream impact, a negative PDO phase tends to shift the jet stream north(In the United States). When it comes to other potential impacts of the drought, it is clear that the Arctic oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation triggered the drought. In the 2011 - 2012 winter, these two oscillations worked together to decrease the number of winter storms in the US. Due to the fact that very little snow fell, there was little melting that occurred and therefore there was a lack of moisture in the ground. In addition to this, a heat wave hit in the middle of 2012, further drying out the ground. Ever since, there has been a lack of rainfall(possibly due to the fact that there is less room for water to evaporate), which might have a little to do with the shifted PDO phase.

Answer 2

The data clearly show current state of the PDO is not negative.

To claim otherwise is to ignore the data.



PDO The PDO monthly index has been positive since JAN-14.

The last two OCT-MAR periods have been positive.

The 5-year moving average is increasing and approaching zero.



http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Answer 3

The PDO is in it's negative phase

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